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Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got something to learn from the alternative arguments."

Request for Broader Discussion

Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."